TCU Horned Frogs (13-1) vs. Georgia Bulldogs (14-0)
Game Info: Monday, January 9, 2022 at 7:30 p.m. EST (SoFi Stadium)
Betting Odds: Georgia (-12.5) / Over/Under (63.5)
Pick: Georgia (-12.5)
As the season comes to a close, we get an enticing matchup in the CFP Final between the TCU Horned Frogs and Georgia Bulldogs in Sofi Stadium, with the winner taking home the National Championship trophy. In a year where Georgia was supposed to be rebuilding with a young roster and TCU was bringing in a new head coach, this is set to be one of the most unlikely Championship games in CFB history.
TCU entered spring football off of a below-par previous season where they went 5-7 and missed the opportunity at playing in a bowl game. They brought in Sonny Dykes, who previously coached at SMU for the past four seasons, where he was able to turn their program around with 3 winning seasons in a row for the first time since the mid 1980s. Furthermore, they were undecided on who was going to start at quarterback. Fast forward to now, if you would've told Horned Frog supporters that they'd be playing in the biggest game of the year, they would've thought you were telling a bold-faced lie. But, it is exactly what has happened. Heisman Finalist, Max Duggan, won the starting QB role back after an injury to Chandler Morris occurred in the first game of the season and never gave it back after he was put in. On the road to TCU's outstanding season, he threw for over 3,500 yards and threw for 32 touchdowns, while also rushing for another 8. Flipping over to the defensive side, they will need to improve on their run defense if they want a fighting chance at bringing home a victory. They rank 80th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and only 89th in Rushing Yards Allowed per game. If they replicate this against Georgia, the game could be over by halftime. Dykes and his defense will certainly be aware of this and will try to set the best game plan possible to slow down the Bulldog attack. They are 3-0 ATS as an underdog this year, can they make it 4/4?
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Georgia will love their chances in this game after coming back from down 14 in the fourth quarter to a much tougher opponent in the Ohio State Buckeyes. Although the Dawgs certainly didn't play their A game in that one, I think it shows how dominant they really are in that they can beat one of the best teams in the country even when they are not playing near their best. Although they are always known for their defense, Todd Monken (Offensive Coordinator) has put out an elite offensive output all year. It may not always be flashy, but they always seem to get the job done when it matters. It hasn't only been against weak opponents too, as they are 3-1 ATS against ranked opponents on the year. They will look to pound the ball on the ground all night with their three headed attack in Kenny McIntosh, Daijon Edwards, and Kendall Milton in order to stay ahead on the scoreboard from the start. As I previously mentioned above, if they can find early success on the ground to set up play-action for Stetson to go over the top to their skilled tight-ends and wide receivers, we could be in for a blowout on Monday night.
A few betting trends to consider in this matchup:
- TCU is 5-11 in its last 16 neutral-site games
- 76% of the public is all over TCU to cover in this one
- The over has hit in the last 4/5 games that UGA has played in
The line opened up at -13.5 in favor of the Dawgs, but has since been bought down to the 12.5-13 range depending on what Sportsbook you are operating on. Now is the time to jump in and take Georgia as I see the line jumping near the 14 mark by kickoff as sharps come in and take the favorite. The Bulldogs will have their way in this one and get whatever they want on the offensive side of the ball. They got a wake-up call in their semi-final game against the Buckeyes, but still prevailed. Kirby will have them ready to go from the gate in this one and will complete one of the best seasons in CFB history. Give me the Dawgs big here.
Kenny McIntosh over 63.5 rushing yards
Stetson Bennett over 278.5 passing yards
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