Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers Free Pick 1/1/23, NFL Odds, NFL Predictions


Minnesota Vikings (12-3) at Green Bay Packers (7-8)

Game Info: Sunday, January 1, 2023 at 4:25 p.m. EST (Lambeau Field)

Betting Odds: Packers (-3) / Over/Under (47.5)

Pick: Packers (-3)

In what should be one of the most entertaining games of the weekend in the NFL, we will be heading north to take a deeper look at the NFC North battle between the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers. This game will be played in the cold winter air of Green Bay inside Lambeau Field at 4:25 p.m. EST, in what is a must win for the Packers if they hope to give themselves a chance in the playoffs. 

If you have taken a glance at the Vikings season so far, you may have thought that they have been in a close game almost every game so far this season. If you were thinking this, you are absolutely right. They have played in 11 one score games this year, and have won every single game somehow, which has brought them to being 12-3 on the year. It seems as though every single bounce that could possibly go their way late in games has, but can their luck continue? If they want any chance in this game, they are going to have to clean up their run game as that is the way to attack the Packers defense. Dalvin Cook has to get going early and often as he has in the past against the Packers. Even though Minnesota possess' a 12-3 record, they only have a +5 point differential. This is partly due to a few things, including their run offense, inconsistent pass game, and porous defense. Speaking of the defense, they come in ranked in the bottom 5 of defenses in numerous stats. A few of them being yards let up and points allowed. Having not covered their last games, all to lesser opponents than this one, we shall see if Justin Jefferson can continue on his historic season to keep his squad afloat in this one as they battle for seeding in the NFC.

Just as I stated last week, the Packers have their backs against the wall once again. But, with a much slimmer chance in making the playoffs going into Miami, after securing a Christmas Day win over the Dolphins, and getting some help from the Giants and Commanders who are firmly in the playoff picture with them, this game gives them an opportunity to jump into a playoff spot out of no where. Although it has looked ugly sometimes throughout the season, Aaron Rodgers has once again found his groove late in the year. Coming off of three straight wins (3-0 ATS in that run), the Packers will feel good as they hope to topple their division foes. They will receive a big boost in this one as they are going to have their All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari manning the left side for Rodgers; playing against his former teammate Za'Darius Smith on the other side of the ball. They will hope to get revenge on the first game of the season in Minnesota where Jefferson ran up and down all over their elite pass defense. If they can find a way to stop Dalvin Cook who has plagued them in the past numerous times, they will love their chances in coming out with a huge win in this one.

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A few betting trends to consider in this matchup:

- The over has hit in 5 straight games that the Vikings have played in

- Minnesota is 4-9 ATS in the last 13 games played against Green Bay

- The Packers are 3-0 ATS in their last three games played, their best run all season

This is one where I think we can throw all of the numbers and analysis out of the conversation, because if we only looked at the numbers, the Vikings could easily be a .500 team fighting for a playoff spot. Putting that to the side, since Matt Lafleur has become the Head Coach of the Green Bay Packers, they just don't seem to lose games like this. On top of this, I ultimately trust Aaron Rodgers at home in Lambeau over Kirk Cousins who has a tendency to crumble in big games in his career. The line opened up at 2 but has jumped to the field goal mark as big money continues to come in on the Packers, rightfully so. The Packers will control the whole game and Kirk will give them an interception or two when he has to force it late. Give me Green Bay to keep their playoff hopes alive.

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