San Diego Padres (37-43) at Pittsburgh Pirates (37-42)
Game Info: Thursday, June 29, 2023 at 12:35 p.m. EST (PNC Park)
Betting Odds: Padres (-205) / Over/Under (8.5)
Pick: Pirates ML (+170)
Thursday brings us back to PNC Park for the final game of the series between the San Diego Padres and Pittsburgh Pirates.
The Padres can not seem to get anything going at the moment, coming into this one on a four-game losing streak. This run of games has dropped them to a 37-43 record, good for fourth in the NL West and a shocking 10.5 games back from the division-leading Arizona Diamondbacks. I am not sure anyone would have believed you at the beginning of the season if you told them that after eighty games, the D-Backs would be outperforming the Padres to this extent. In yesterday's clash with the Pirates, they were handled by their ace, Mitch Keller, as he allowed only four hits over six innings pitched. Against an inferior pitcher in Luis Ortiz that the Padres will face today, can they muster some runs together to get back to winning ways before it is too late?
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Pittsburgh has dominated San Diego in every facet of the game in the first two games of the series, outscoring them by a score of 16-5 combined. Now, as they go for the sweep in a day game on Thursday, they will be put up to the test once again against a solid pitcher in Joe Musgrove. One man to surely watch in today's game if he gets the chance to play, is rookie catcher Henry Davis. Although he has only amassed around thirty at-bats in the big leagues so far, he certainly looks the part, as he is already boasting a .303 average, with a home run and two stolen bases to go along with it. Nonetheless, I see this game falling in Ortiz's hands on the mound. In his last outing, he went eight strong innings, while only allowing one earned run. If he can replicate that in today's game, the Padres may be on life alert before they head into their weekend series with the Cincinnati Reds.
Betting trends to consider in this matchup:
- The Padres are 30-38 when playing on no rest
- San Diego is 2-7 in their last nine games
- The over is 16-9 when the Pirates have been the home underdog
I don't often do this, but I am going to go to the well one more time in back-to-back days on the Pirates. As I mentioned yesterday when I sided with the home team as a hefty underdog, I can not justify one reason why someone would be hammering the Padres at this much of a favorite on the road with the way they are playing as of late. Now that I am getting the Pirates at an even better price today, give me them to complete the sweep on the swooning Padres!
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