Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves 4/21/23 Free Pick, NBA Odds, NBA Predictions

Denver Nuggets (53-29) at Minnesota Timberwolves (42-40)

Game Info: Friday, April 21, 2023 at 9:30 p.m. EST (Target Center)

Betting Odds: Nuggets (-2.5) / Over/Under (223)

Pick: Timberwolves (+2.5)

Let's head to the Target Center to look into game 3 of the Western Conference Playoffs between the Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves. 

After dominating in all phases of the game in game 1, the Nuggets were faced with a different task in game 2 with the Timberwolves laying it all on the line to try and even up the series before heading home. Nevertheless, Denver was able to use a 35-24 4th quarter to secure the key win to put them in the driver's seat heading into Friday night's battle. Nikola Jokic has been his usual self in the Playoffs so far, but the way Jamal Murray played in game 2 was utterly fascinating to watch, putting in 40 points on only 22 shots. I am not going to deem him completely back to the form he was in the Playoffs a few years ago because of one game, but he sure was able to show shades of that last time out. Now, heading into a raucous Minnesota crowd, can he deliver another masterclass to give the Nuggets the 3-0 series lead?

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Minnesota was able to use an extensive run in the 3rd quarter to take the lead after being down 20+ in the 1st half in game 2. But, the groove that they were able to build up eventually fizzled out in the 4th where they look uncoordinated on the defensive end for the most part. After struggling from the field in game 1, Anthony Edwards displayed his true talents in game 2, putting up 41 points while shooting 60.9% from the field. In saying that though, they will need way more out of their All-Star big man, Karl-Anthony Towns if they expect any chance to get back into this series against the top-seeded Nuggets. After averaging 20.8 PTS in the regular season, he has only been able to score 21 points in total over the first 2 games, shooting 8-27 from the field. Moving forward, heading home to play in the Target Center should give him a boost to put on a better showing than he was able to do in games 1-2. 

Betting trends to consider in this matchup:

- The Timberwolves are 11-5 ATS when playing as the home underdog

- Minnesota is 5-2 ATS over the last 7 games

- Denver is 10-16 ATS when playing as a road favorite

The inspiring play that the Timberwolves were able to put together in the 2nd half of game 2 has given me the utmost confidence to believe that they can deliver on their home floor in game 3. All year long, the T-Wolves have been excellent when playing as a home underdog, and I fully expect that to continue tonight. Give me KAT and Edwards to deliver a gut punch to the Nuggets in a must-win game for Minnesota!

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