San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates 6/28/23 Free Pick, MLB Odds, MLB Predictions

San Diego Padres (37-42) at Pittsburgh Pirates (36-42)

Game Info: Wednesday, June 28, 2023 at 7:05 p.m. EST (PNC Park)

Betting Odds: Padres (-160) / Over/Under (8)

Pick: Pirates ML (+135)

As the middle of the week dawns upon us, let's head to PNC Park to dive into game two of the series between the San Diego Padres and Pittsburgh Pirates. 

San Diego has looked absolutely abysmal over their last three games, losing by a score of 19-7 in three games versus the Nationals and Pirates combined. This has brough them to a 37-42 record, good for 10.0 games back of the NL West leading Arizona Diamondbacks and 7.0 games back of the Dodgers for the last spot in the Wild Card race. Once they seem to find a groove for a few games, it feels as though a different team heads out there the following day. Looking at their lineup, they are going to need Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts to heat up at some point if they have any aspirations of making a run towards the end of the season. Moving on to their pitching staff, Blake Snell, has been stellar every fifth day, boasting an impressive 3.22 ERA. Can he come through once again for the Padres as they hope to right the ship on Wednesday night?

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The Pirates have fell off a bit after going on a solid streak a few weeks ago. With a 2-8 record in their last ten games, they have fallen to fourth in the NL Central divsion (4.5 games back of the Cincinnati Reds in first place). Although Josh Palacios took all of the attention away from the win last night when he robbed Juan Soto of a home run in left field, a 9-4 thumping where they were able to muster sixteen hits together may be the spark they needed to get back on the right track. On fire once again for the Pirates is veteran Andrew McCutchen. Over his last seven games, he is batting a whopping .417 (10-24 in that stretch). Despite the fact that Pittsburgh will be thrilled that he is turning back the clock this campaign, they may be even more ecstatic that if he is still playing like this near the deadline, he will be a target that several contenders will be looking to add to their team. Can he stay on fire against a pitcher he has yet to get a hit off of in his career?

Betting trends to consider in this matchup:

- The Padres are 30-37 when playing on no rest

- San Diego is 2-6 in their last eight games

- The over is 15-9 when the Pirates have been the home underdog

When the Padres go in slumps like this, I find it hard to justify any reason of taking them on the road as a hefty favorite. Piling on to this, the Pirates will have Mitch Keller on the mound, certainly their best pitcher in 2023. He has been stellar at home as well, boasting a 2.78 ERA in PNC Park. Give me the Pirates to steal game two just like they did last night in convincing fashion! 

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