New York Knicks at Miami Heat 5/6/23 Free Pick, NBA Odds, NBA Predictions

New York Knicks (47-35) at Miami Heat (44-38)

Game Info: Saturday, May 6, 2023 at 3:30 p.m. EST (Kaseya Center)

Betting Odds: Heat (-4) / Over/Under (209)

Pick: Knicks (+4)

Let's start our Saturday off with a pivotal Game 3 inside Kaseya Center, when the New York Knicks head into Miami to take on the Heat. 

After dropping Game 1 inside Madison Square Garden, New York was able to use a 35-28 4th quarter to even up the series in Game 2. As they get ready to play the next 2 in Miami, we shall see if the Knicks can find their groove once again to steal at least 1 on the road before flying back into their home arena. Jalen Brunson is surely one to watch here, as he has been a stellar addition to this Knicks roster in the offseason. Last time out he scored 30 points and logged a +12 in 39 minutes. He seems to only be getting better as the games go by as well, so the Heat will need to come up with their best game plan yet if they are to slow him down. On the defensive end, the Knicks continue to suffocate the opposing teams up against them, seemingly never letting up over 110 points which is absurd with the way the NBA is played now. Although defense does tend to travel, the Knicks will need to be up to the test if they are to take this series from the Heat. 

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Miami wil be thrilled that they were able to take 1 from New York on their home floor, especially with the fact that Jimmy Butler was banged up or sidelined for  both games. With the expectation that Butler is going to be good to go for Game 3, the Heat will be as healthy as they are going to get for this Postseason. Even though the Heat were a massive underdog coming into the Playoffs to do anything meaningful, after taking down the Milwaukee Bucks 4-1, they will have the confidence against any squad, especially as they will be playing this one in Kaseya Center in front of their home crowd. Moving on, Gabe Vincent and Bam Adebayo will have an immense role to play if the Heat are to upset another top-5 seed. Vincent only averaged 9.4 points in the regular season, but he has amounted 41 points in the first 2 games of the series. Can Vincent assist Butler and score 20+ in his 3rd straight game en route to a Game 3 win?

Betting trends to consider in this matchup:

- New York is 28-15-1 ATS when playing on the road

- The Knicks are 19-12-1 ATS when playing as the road underdog

- Miami is 12-24-2 ATS when playing as the home favorite

This series should be played in the low 200's every game, but I am going to take a different angle on Game 3 and take the New York Knicks to cover the 4 point spread. All in all, even if Butler is a go (which he most likely will be), I trust the Knicks roster way more than I do with the Heat rotation. For sure, Jimmy Butler has the capability to make me eat my words as he scores 40+ on his home floor to deliver a blow to the Knicks in crunch time, but I will take the higher percentage in the Knicks hounding him to force anybody else to beat them. Give me New York to keep this one close to the end!

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