Denver Nuggets at Miami Heat 6/7/23 Free Pick, NBA Odds, NBA Predictions

Denver Nuggets (53-29) at Miami Heat (44-38)

Game Info: Wednesday, June 7, 2023 at 8:30 p.m. EST (Kaseya Center)

Betting Odds: Nuggets (-2.5) / Over/Under (214.5)

Pick: Heat ML (+130)

Wednesday night brings us a critical Game 3 in the NBA Finals, where the Denver Nuggets will be facing off with the Miami Heat for a chance to take a 2-1 lead inside the Kaseya Center. 

Denver finally suffered a loss on their home floor after it seemed as though they did not loss for months inside Ball Arena. Heading into the fourth quarter, it felt like we were going to be headed to Miami on Wednesday with the Nuggets up 2-0. Nevertheless, through one of the most complete fourth quarter performances of the year by Miami, the Nuggets fell short by a score of 111-108. One of the biggest reasons as to why Denver was stifled was the fact that they were not able to get anyone else going other than Nikola Jokic. Jokic put in an impressive 41 points and 11 rebounds, but was only able to amount 4 assists, which is unlike him. If Miami's plan is to allow him to dominate scoring-wise in hopes to limit there other options from taking over, they succeeded in great fashion. In Game 3, we shall see if Head Coach Michael Malone can draw up a better game plan in hopes to get Jamal Murray back on the right track. 

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If you thought the Heat were going to go down lightly, think again. Every single series in the Playoffs they have been sizable underdogs, and every single time they have shut down the haters and got to four wins before the opposing team has. Even though they were almost double digit underdogs in Game 2 in Denver, they threw all of that to the side as they came up with a shocking upset.  Other than allowing Jokic to do his thing on the defensive side of the ball for the  Heat, on the offensive end, they got key contributions from several players in order to come out on top by the time the clock struck zero. Jimmy Butler, Gabe Vincent, and Bam Adebayo all scored 20+ points each, but the player who showed out in the fourth quarter out of them all was Duncan Robinson. After not scoring a point for the first three quarters, he went 4-5 in the last frame, scoring a needed 10 points to get the Heat over the hump. Time will tell if Miami can get the same output from him in Game 3 on their home floor. 

Betting trends to consider in this matchup:

- Miami is 7-2 ATS as a home underdog

- The Heat are 14-6 ATS in the Playoffs

- Denver is 11-17 ATS as an away favorite

I jumped ship on the Heat last game, thinking that the Nuggets would deliver once again on their home floor. Turns out that was the wrong idea. The Heat are simply playing too good at the moment to feel comfortable in Denver covering a hefty 9-10 point spread and I should have known better then to fall for the bait. Nonetheless, for Game 3, give me the Heat to come up with the goods in crunch time in order to deliver the second consecutive loss to the Nuggets for the first time in the Playoffs! 

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