Miami Heat at Dallas Mavericks Free Pick 1/20/23, NBA Odds, NBA Predictions

Miami Heat (25-21) at Dallas Mavericks (24-22)

Game Info: Friday, January 20, 2023 at 7:30 p.m. EST (American Airlines Center)

Betting Odds: Heat (-1) / Over/Under (217.5)

Pick: Heat (-1)

Tonight, we will get an inter-conference matchup between two teams that are headed in different directions right now when the Miami Heat go into the American Airlines Center to take on the Dallas Mavericks.

Miami is finally starting to get healthy as all of their key pieces have fought their way back from various injuries to be healthy for this one. This has subsequently allowed them to go on a string of games in a row where they have gotten big performances from all of their starters. They have won 9 of their last 13 games (8-5 ATS in that span), and a big part of this is because Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler have been rounding into form. Although they are not the most explosive offense in the league, ranked 29th in that category, they always challenge the opposing team to come with their best stuff on the offensive side of the ball every night. This has shown of late as in 2 out of their last 3 games they have held the Pelicans and Bucks to under 100 points. Erik Spoelstra had to fight through a plethora of injuries on his team to start the season, but as everyone starts to get healthy, we are seeing just how dominant this Heat team can be. If they can add a piece or two at the deadline, they may be in for another extended run in the Playoffs.  

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Dallas is going the opposite way of Miami of late. Having lost 5 out of their last 6 games (1-5 ATS in that stretch), Jason Kidd is finding it hard to get any part of his team's game going. With injuries to key players like Christian Wood, Maxi Kleber, and Tim Hardaway Jr., the Mavericks are quickly finding out that Luka Doncic can’t do it all on his own. He is doing his job in keeping them afloat, leading the team in all major categories as he currently is averaging 33.7 PTS, 8.8 AST, and 8.8 REB per game, but they aren’t getting much else from anyone else. If they continue to drop games, they will soon be pushed into a play-in spot, which is not where they would’ve hoped to be at this point in the season. Having let up 130+ points in their last three games played, they will need to fix their defensive issues come game time against the Heat if they want to stop their skid of losing 3 games in a row. 

A few betting trends to consider in this matchup:

- Dallas is 3-13-2 ATS in non-Conference games

- Dallas is 8-16 ATS when they have equal rest as the team they are playing

- The under has hit in 8 of 11 games when the Heat are road favorites

As the Mavericks continue to trend downwards, this is the worst team to play in this situation. The Heat are healthy and on a roll right now, which is a bad recipe for a struggling team trying to get their season back on track. Furthermore, Coach Spoelstra will have a plan for Doncic to slow him down and make someone else beat them as he always does. Moving on, this line opened with the Mavs being favored by 1.5, but has since flipped over to the Heat being favored on the road within hours of the line being released. This proves to me that my thought process is certainly on the right side. Give me Lowry, Herro, Adebayo, and Butler to keep it going for Miami on the road, as they try to separate themselves from the middle of the pack in the East. 

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