Miami Heat at Boston Celtics 5/25/23 Free Pick, NBA Odds, NBA Predictions

Miami Heat (44-38) at Boston Celtics (57-25)

Game Info: Thursday, May 25, 2023 at 8:30 p.m. EST (TD Garden)

Betting Odds: Celtics (-8) / Over/Under (215.5)

Pick: Celtics (-8)

Let's head into TD Garden to dive into Game 5 between the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics, with the Celtics looking to extend this series one more game into Miami. 

Miami had the chance to close the series out on their home floor but were not able to. Nevertheless, if you told the Heat at the beginning of the series that they would be leading 3-1 in Boston for a chance to punch their ticket to the NBA Finals they would have bit your hand off for that opportunity. It certainly will not be easy though, as the Celtics have momentum now after stealing Game 4 from them by a score of 116-99. As the series flips to TD Garden once again, Miami will have to hone in on their effort after coming out of the break to put up more of a fight in the 2nd half. In Game 4, after going into halftime up 6 points, they got outscored 38-23 in the 3rd quarter, which put them in too big of a hole to come back from in the 4th quarter. If the Heat are going to will themselves into winning their 3rd straight game on the road in Boston's arena, a  high-intensity defensive output will put them on the right track to doing so. 

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The Celtics are still in a hole here, but the light is certainly getting slowly brighter for them as they will now have the chance to come home and play in front of their raucous fans to put all of the pressure on Miami. After playing utterly miserably in the first 3 encounters with one another from Games 1-3, the Celtics finally found the spark that they needed in the 2nd half in Game 3 to propel them to their 1st win. I would not say that they would have hoped to wait until potentially the last half of their season to start to play up to their potential, but as the saying goes, it is better later than never. In spite of the momentum that they have built though, Miami is a seasoned veteran squad that will be ready to go again in Game 5, so Boston can not come out acting as though the Heat are going to lie down for them. Having gotten the 1st win out of the way, can the Celtics put themselves one step closer to making NBA history in being the 1st team to come back from an 0-3 deficit to winning the series?

Betting trends to consider in this matchup:

- Boston is 40-29 ATS in Conference games

- The Celtics are 28-22 ATS when playing on their home floor

- Miami was 30-49-3 ATS in regular season games

As Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown stated in their interviews before the game, do not let them get one. Now that they have, I fear for the Heat in this game. The Celtics will be raring to go inside TD Garden, which I expect will lead to them jumping out to an early, healthy lead. They will never look back in this one and we will be getting ready for a Game 6 in Miami in a few days. Do not overthink this pick, take the Celtics to win by at least double digits!

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