Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars Pick 1/14/23, NFL Odds, NFL Predictions

Los Angeles Chargers (10-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8)

Game Info: Saturday, January 14, 2023 at 8:15 p.m. EST (TIAA Bank Field)

Betting Odds: Chargers (-2.5) / Over/Under (47.5)

Pick: Jaguars (+2.5)

Playoff football is finally here, and what better way to start it off then to watch two star quarterbacks duel it out in their Playoff debuts on Saturday Night. In what should be a shootout, the Los Angeles Chargers will travel to Duval to take  on the Jacksonville Jaguars in this one. 

Los Angeles will enter this postseason with high aspirations in Justin Herbert's Playoff debut campaign. They enter Wild Card weekend off of a disappointing loss to close the season against the Broncos, but inevitably it was a meaningless game as they already punched their ticket to the Postseason. They  finished the season going 10-7 SU and 11-5-1 ATS, which was the fourth best ATS record in the NFL this season. Against an improving run defense that the Jags bring into this one, they will look for Justin Herbert to move the ball down the field in the air all night long. In spurts, he hasn't looked great this year, but he still ended the year throwing for 4,739 yards (2nd in the NFL). If they can successfully attack the perimeter against a below-average pass defense that Jacksonville has, they will put up points all night long and will be sending the home crowd home in disappointment. 

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After starting the season 3-7, it was surely looking like another disheartening season for the Jacksonville Jaguars. But, with a late season resurgance, they ended the year on a 6-1 run (5-2 ATS in that span). After beating the banged up Titans last week, they punched their ticket into the Playoffs, but more importantly, as the home team. With this being Trevor Lawrence's Playoff debut,  Head Coach Doug Pederson will look to give him some easy reads to start off the game to get him in a groove. They have been excellent towards the end of the season on the defensive side of the ball, as they only have allowed 22 points in their last 3 games combined. If they can keep this up against a high-flying offense that Herbert and the Chargers come in with, they will surely secure a win and advance to the Divisional Round. 

A few betting trends to consider in this matchup:

- Jacksonville is 4-0 ATS as a home underdog this year

- Jacksonville is 4-0 SU as a home underdog 

- The under was 10-6-1 in Chargers games in the regular season

- The under was 8-4 ATS in Jaguars Conference games 

In what should be a close back-and-forth battle, giving me the Jags as a 2.5 point underdog at home is the bet for me in this one without a doubt. About 60% of the bets are on the Chargers, but the money is favored in the Jags way which tells me that I am most likely on the right side. By game time, I see this line dropping to the 1.5-2 range in favor of the Chargers, so I am going to jump in now and get this line when I can. The Jaguars have been stellar all season as home dogs and seem to show up best when quality teams come into Jacksonville. Give me Trevor Lawrence to outduel Justin Herbert en route to a Playoff debut win. Jags +2.5 and sprinkle a little on the ML. 

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