Los Angeles Chargers at Indianapolis Colts Free Pick 12/26/22, NFL Odds, NFL Predictions

Los Angeles Chargers (8-6) at Indianapolis Colts (4-9-1)

Game Info: Monday, December 26, 2022 at 8:15 p.m. EST (Lucas Oil Stadium)

Betting Odds: Chargers (-4) / Over/Under (45.5)

Pick: Colts (+4)

Tonight let’s head over to the Midwest to take a deeper look into Monday Night Football where the Los Angeles Chargers travel to take on the Indianapolis Colts in Lucas Oil Stadium at 8:15 p.m. EST.

Indianapolis has been a mess all season. But, they have a plan (maybe) that will give them a reason to be happy as the regular season comes to a close. This plan is to ditch Sam Ehlinger and Matt Ryan and throw their third-string QB in there, Nick Foles. Usually, I would question a move like this, but the Colts offense has been so abysmal all year that they genuinely have no other moves that they can make to try and spark this offense somehow. Indianapolis comes into this one off of 4 straight losses after they secured a win on the road in Jeff Saturday’s first game coached about a month ago. To pour more salt in the wound, they have had two historic performances in their past two games, in a bad way. They lost the fourth quarter to the Cowboys 33-0 two weeks ago and blew a 33-0 lead at half time to the Vikings last week. After these two performances, it looks like Saturday’s reign as head coach will be short lived. Despite all of this, the Colts somehow boast a 5-2 record ATS this season coming in as an underdog of at least 3.5 points (2-0 at home), which this game qualifies under. So, is this a game where we can trust the new look of Foles to lead us to the promised land? I guess we’ll have to wait and see.

Los Angeles comes into this one winning three of their last four games, albeit all by 6 points or less, so they have all been tight games. As we have seen all season long, they will rely on Herbert to provide magic all game in order to push them over the line. This will be even more apparent in this game as they will be up against a stellar run defense that the Colts bring in, as they rank 7th in yards-per-carry allowed (4.1). In saying this though, Herbert is easily a top 10, if not 5 quarterback in the league, and he is certainly capable of coming out and shredding through this defense. 

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A few betting trends to consider in this matchup:

- The Colts are 19-7-1 in their last 27 games at home against opponents with a winning road record

- The Chargers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games

- The Colts are 2-0 ATS as home underdogs this season

This game opened up with the Chargers being a short favorite (-2.5) on the road, but since Indianapolis has come out and announced Foles as the starter, the line has jumped over the field goal mark to around -4 to -4.5. Although Foles hasn’t played basically all year, I think his arm will be much fresher than Matt Ryan’s has been which will allow the offense to take some shots down the field more than they have been able to throughout the whole season. I love the fact that we get the full field goal cushion since Ryan is out, being that Los Angeles loves to play close games. If they can convert on a few of these big plays, they will be able to keep this one close at home. Cover your nose and take the Colts at home. 

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