Kansas City Chiefs (14-3) vs Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
Game Info: Sunday, February 12, 2023 at 6:30 p.m. EST (State Farm Stadium)
Betting Odds: Eagles (-1.5) / Over/Under (51)
Pick: Eagles (-1.5)
The day has finally come... the most-watched American sporting event of the year, the Super Bowl. This year we are gifted with the two #1 seeds when the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Philadelphia Eagles inside State Farm Stadium.
Kansas City was able to finally revenge their consecutive losses to the Bengals in the AFC Championship game, ending the whole "Burrowhead" talk. They have now won 7 games in a row (3-4 ATS in that stretch), and have used this run to give themselves another chance at adding another Super Bowl to the Mahomes Dynasty. Speaking of Patrick Mahomes, when it mattered most, he showed up once again. Although he didn't have a historic stat line like he has had in the past, playing on a hobbled leg, it was one of the more impressive performances of his career in my eyes. Against the best-ranked pass defense in the league, he will surely need to be at his best again if they plan to keep up with this stout Eagles team. Mahomes will certainly be the center of attention, but this game may be won on the ground game. The Chiefs will have to get more than 26 yards from their lead rusher in this one to give themselves short-distance downs because playing on third-and-long consistently against Philadelphia will turn into a nightmare by the end of the night for them.
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Philadelphia has barely given anything to anyone this year when Jalen Hurts has been playing. While the Chiefs have won their two Playoff games by 10 points combined, the Eagles have stomped their opponents, winning by a total score of 69-14. In spite of the fact that everyone will point to the 49ers not having a quarterback for the majority of the game, this doesn't mean Philly couldn't have laid off mentally and let San Francisco into the game, but they didn't. They have played outstanding on both sides of the ball all year, and are one of the most well-rounded teams in recent memory in the NFL. If Jalen Hurts did not get injured toward the end of the season, he was one of the top MVP candidates, and he has shown us why in the Playoffs. He has not had to have a stressful drive late in games, but he has taken care of the ball and not thrown an interception in either game. This will unquestionably be the best offense they have played all season, so time will tell if it was a fluke, or if they are the real deal.
Betting trends to consider in this matchup:
- Philadelphia is 10-5 ATS after a win
- Kansas City is 4-10-1 ATS after a win
- The Eagles are 2-0 ATS in Playoff games
- The Chiefs are the 5th worst team ATS this year, with a 7-11-1 ATS record
Sure Patrick Mahomes can go out there and have a dynasty game on the biggest stage, but on such a short spread, I have to back the more complete team. Andy Reid has coached on this stage several times in his career, but it is Nick Sirianni's time to shine. He has the perfect personality for a Philly coach, and we are going to see the Eagles shine in this game. Give me the Eagles to win comfortably in Glendale, Arizona.
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