Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders Free Pick 1/7/23, NFL Odds, NFL Predictions

Kansas City Chiefs (13-3) at Las Vegas Raiders (6-10)

Game Info: Saturday, January 7, 2023 at 4:30 p.m. EST (Allegiant Stadium)

Betting Odds: Chiefs (-9) / Over/Under (52.5)

Pick: Raiders (+9)

To start off the last week of regular season football in the NFL, we will be taking a look at the AFC West battle between the Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders, in which the Raiders would love to play spoiler against their division rivals. 

Kansas City will have one goal in this game... to secure a win without obtaining any major injuries. If they can come away with a win as a heavy favorite on the road against Las Vegas, they will lock up the 1 seed in the AFC and force every team to come through Arrowhead the rest of the way. They will look to continue on their current 4 game win streak in which they defeated the lowly Texans, Seahawks, and Broncos twice. Even though this is set at a 9 point spread, it may be a closer game than you expect though, as the Chiefs are 0-6 ATS in their last six AFC West games. As they have one eye towards the playoffs already, can Andy Reid get his high flying offense to click against a division opponent who is trying to put a divot in their season? 

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Las Vegas will be playing against Kansas City for the first time with Jarrett Stidham as their starting quarterback, but their key to success in this game relies on the run game. Even if Josh Jacobs is not able to go in this one (he is currently listed as questionable), they will have to find a good chunk of yards on early downs running the ball in order to allow Stidham to stay in manageable distances. This will allow them to keep the Chiefs offense off of the field, which is the best way to beat them. They come off of two heartbreaking losses that officially kicked them out of playoff contention against the Steelers and 49ers, but as I previously mentioned, they should have plenty of motivation to end the year on a positive note against a familiar team going into next season. Furthermore, they are 4-0 ATS in their last four games in the AFC West, so they will be hoping to continue on that perfect run. 

A few betting trends to consider in this matchup:

- Las Vegas is 6-0 ATS in their last six games played against teams with a winning record

- The Chiefs come into this one on a 0-4 ATS run on the road 

- Kansas City is an abysmal 1-10 ATS in conference games this year

Kansas City looked lackluster last weekend, and I see that happening again on Saturday. Stidham will give the Chiefs defense something different to look at as they have never seen him before, and they will successfully run the ball good enough to keep this within the 9 point mark. Although on any given week the Chiefs can show up and blow any team out, I don't see them doing it in this one on the road. Give me the Raiders plus the points. 

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