Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins Free Pick 12/25/22, NFL Odds, NFL Predictions

Green Bay Packers (6-8) at Miami Dolphins (8-6)

Game Info: Sunday, December 25, 2022 at 1:00 p.m. EST (Hard Rock Stadium)

Betting Odds: Dolphins (-3.5) / Over/Under (49.5)

Pick: Packers (+3.5)

The Christmas Day NFL slate starts off with an enticing matchup that a few weeks ago we may have thought would've been a meaningless game, but with a little help from others and after winning the last two games, the Packers' season is still hanging by a thread and this turns out to be an enormous matchup for playoff implications. This game is being played at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, with the current weather forecast looking like it is going to be in the mid 50's with cloudy skies. 

Green Bay comes into this game after winning their last two games, albeit against two of the worst teams in the league, but will take wins anyway they can come at this point in the season. The bright emergence of Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs (finally both healthy) has given this offense the juice they need to get into somewhat of a rhythm in the past two games. Partnering this with the fact that the Dolphins two-headed monster in Waddle and Hill will face their toughest test of the season in the Packers secondary, who ranks 2nd in the league in pass defense, Green Bay may have the tools to stop this high powered offense. Also, as I stated above, even if it were to lesser opponents, they have won and covered in their last few games. This begs the question, can they do it on the road with their season on the line?

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Miami slumps into this one after coming off of three losses in a row, although they put up a good fight in their last game against the Bills in the wintery conditions in Buffalo. Although we are enamored by their pass game, we should see Miami try to pound the ball on the ground against a pretty abysmal run defense that the Packers offer. This could be a game where Mostert and Wilson carry the bulk of the load on the offensive side of the ball if Green Bay doesn't make early adjustments to force Miami into 3rd and long situations, which GB thrives on. Will their struggles continue on both sides of the ball for a fourth week in a row, or can they get back on track and keep themselves ahead of the pack who are fighting for the last wild card spot in the AFC? 

Betting trends to consider in this matchup:

- The Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games played against the Dolphins 

- The Packers are 2-1 ATS this year when playing as at least a 3.5 point underdog

- The under is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 Dolphins home games

All in all, I trust Aaron Rodgers in games like this. Although he hasn't had the best season, every time anyone seems to count him and the Packers out, he shows us each time why he is a 3 time MVP award winner. I think the Packers play with a chip on their shoulder in this one and keep it close for Aaron to have a game-winning drive to keep their season afloat. Although the Dolphins may on paper look like they should have success against Green Bay's run defense, I think the Packers stars on the d-line show up in this one. Also, their secondary should be able to slow the passing attack that the Dolphins boast and force Tua into a turnover or two if he is facing long 3rd downs all game long which he is not comfortable in. Give me the Packers and the ML. 

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