Florida Atlantic Owls (35-3) vs. San Diego State Aztecs (31-6)
Game Info: Saturday, April 1, 2022 at 6:09 p.m. EST (NRG Stadium)
Betting Odds: San Diego State (-2.5) / Over/Under (132)
Pick: Under (132)
In one of the most surprising matchups in Final Four history, let's head out to the NRG Stadium, where the Florida Atlantic Owls will take on the San Diego State Aztecs for a chance at punching their ticket to the Final.
Florida Atlantic does not consider itself an underdog at all and it shows on the court. With an utterly dominating 35-3 record, they have managed to control almost every single game that they have played in the last few months. As they make their way into Houston to participate in the Final Four, they will have a different task on their hands in this one. San Diego State boasts an immaculate defense that has let up only 57.3 PPG on the year. With both teams on extended win streaks heading into this enticing clash, the Owls will have to execute their game plan to a tee if they want to make it to the last 2. In their win against the Kansas State Wildcats in the Elite 8, they were able to get 13+ points from 4 of their starters. If they can repeat that formula once again, they will be in a prime position to take home the win.
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San Diego State was able to use a big second half to take down the Creighton Bluejays by a score of 57-56 in their Elite 8 battle. The way their defense was able to clamp up anything that the Bluejays had to offer in the last 20 minutes was a sight to see. Although at times their offense can sputter and go on stretches where they struggle to put the ball in the basket, with the way that they play defense, they can stick with anyone. Florida Atlantic will offer a unique test for them to overcome, but already facing Creighton and Alabama in the last 2 games will surely help them get ready for another high-powered offense. In the Elite 8, leading scorer Matt Bradley was once again not able to get in a groove, scoring only 2 points on 1-8 shooting. If they want any chance on Saturday night, he will need to get his head right and show up in big fashion for the Aztecs.
Betting trends to consider in this matchup:
- The under is 12-0 in the last 12 games that the Aztecs have played in
- The under is 5-2 in the last 7 games that the Owls have played in
- Florida Atlantic is 24-11-1 ATS in all games this year
With both teams being mightily inexperienced on a stage like this, I expect the jitters to be showing on the court for a large period to start the game. Partnering this with the fact that the under seems to hit in every single game that the Aztecs have been a part of in the past few months, I will side with the under here. I suggest taking it as soon as possible as the number will continue to drop as we get closer to tipoff.
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