Dallas Cowboys at Tennessee Titans Free Pick 12/29/22, NFL Odds, NFL Predictions

Dallas Cowboys (11-4) at Tennessee Titans (7-8)

Game Info: Thursday, December 29, 2022 at 8:15 p.m. EST (Nissan Stadium)

Betting Odds: Cowboys (-12) / Over/Under (40)

Pick: Cowboys (-12)

Get ready to pull up the Amazon Prime Video app on your computers and TV's as we head out to Nashville to break down this Thursday Night matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and the Tennessee Titans. As the line keeps moving one way towards the Cowboys as the days go by, will Tennessee show up and put up a fight on their home field? 

Dallas heads into Nashville feeling good about themselves after knocking off their division foes in the Philadelphia Eagles last week at home. Because of that win, they are still mathematically in the race for the NFC East Division title, so this is certainly a huge game for them (especially if Hurts doesn't play the last two games for the Eagles). Being that Tony Pollard has been announced doubtful in this game, plenty of the burden will be put on Dak Prescott's shoulders to make sure that they stay in the hunt for the division. This bodes well for the likes of Ceedee Lamb and Michael Gallup, as they will be up against one of the worst secondaries statistically in the past few weeks. They come into this one winning 7 out of their last 9 games, although they only covered in 4 out of 9 of those games (44.4%). Mike McCarthy is historically a head coach where his teams tend to have let down's in these spots, so it should be interesting to see if his team can show up on a short week against the Titans to put the pressure on Philadelphia over the weekend.

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The Titans are banged up everywhere you look. Whether it be at quarterback, wide receiver, on the line, or in the secondary, they are limping into this one. Piling on top of this, it certainly doesn't help that they are playing on short rest. But, this is a unique game for them in that it is basically a meaningless game when it comes to playoff implications. No matter what happens this week for the Titans and Jaguars, they will both play against each other in week 18 to decide who comes out of the AFC South Division. Because of this, we may see Tennessee rest a lot of their players, and since many of their key players are injured already, this could be a game where we see 3rd and 4th strings playing meaningful snaps in order to try and get healthy for the following week agains the Jags. After starting the season 7-3, they have managed to lose 5 games in a row (0-4-1 ATS in that stretch). With the news coming out that Derrick Henry will most likely sit out this game, I question how they are going to put up consistent drives to keep the ball away from the potent Dallas offense.  

Betting trends to consider in this matchup:

- Since TNF was introduced, favorites of seven or greater are 39-26 ATS 

- Tennessee games have only gone over in 5/15 games

- Dallas is 9-6 on the year against the spread

Although I don't feel comfortable playing this number if it gets over the two touchdown mark (which I don't think it will), Dallas has been shredding defenses of late, scoring 27+ points in each of their last 8 games. Partner this with the fact that they have all to play for in this game, while Tennessee has been putrid against the pass recently, and they are banged up, resting, and playing in a game that has no impact on their season, Dallas should blow the doors off of the Titans in this one. Trevon Diggs has a big game after getting torched last week against the Eagles receivers, and Dallas leaves Tennessee with a huge win. 

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