Baylor Bears vs. Air Force Falcons, NCAAF Odds, NCAAF Predictions, NCAAF Previews

Baylor Bears (6-6) vs. Air Force Falcons (9-3)

Game Info: Thursday, December 22, 2022 at 7:30 p.m. EST (Amon G. Carter Stadium)

Betting Odds: Baylor (-3.5) / Over/Under (43)

Pick: Air Force (+3.5)

Just as we did last night, we are going to bring our attention to the lone college football game of the day where the Baylor Bears take on the Air Force Falcons in Amon G. Carter Stadium at 7:30 p.m EST. 

Baylor comes into this game off of a disappointing 6-6 season where they weren’t able to get much going on either side of the ball all year. But, it wasn’t long ago where we saw them go toe-to-toe with the Horned Frogs of TCU in a thrilling back and forth game that would’ve knocked TCU out of CFP contention had they not made a 40 yard field goal to walk it off. Still, there aren't many positives to take from their season as Dave Aranda’s squad comes tumbling into this game on a 3 game losing streak, which included a 28 point beat down at home to Kansas State. All season they have struggled on defense, letting up double the amount of points per game as Air Force has (26.6 PPG to 13.3 PPG). This bodes the question, do they have enough talent and determination on defense to be able to stop the triple-option that the Falcons will bring into this match? They will hope to have enough offense against a stellar defense that Air Force has to pull out the win and end their bleak season on a positive note.

Air Force brings their slow, methodical gameplan into this game off of a bright 9-3 season where they were, believe it or not, favorite in every single game they played in. As everyone will know that has their eyes on this game, Air Force will use their unique triple-option offense to keep the Baylor defense off balance. They will rely heavily on their leading rusher, Brad Roberts (RB), who has racked up over 1,600 yards (5.2 yards per carry) throughout the season, while punching it in the end zone 15 times on the ground. On the other side of the ball, as I mentioned previously, they have one of the best defenses in the country PPG wise, letting up less than two touchdowns per game. They will attempt to use their stellar ground game to keep the Baylor offense on the sideline as much as they can. 

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A few betting trends to consider in this matchup:

- Air Force is bringing in >90% of the money, as the public is also slightly on their side

- Air Force is 7-2 straight up in their last 9 games

- The total has hit under in 5 of the last 6 Air Force games

- Baylor is 4-2 ATS in it’s last 6 games 

All in all, this line opened up at around -5.5 in favor of the Bears, but the sharps quickly bought it down to around the field goal mark where it sits now at around -3 to -3.5 depending on what sportsbooks you are using. In this matchup, I question the Baylor will and grit to get up after having such a poor season to get their attention on an offensive style that they haven’t seen all season. I think that the best rushing team in the country will run all over the Bears defense and win this game outright. Give me the Falcons on the spread and the ML. 

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